ASC 718 Expense Forecaster

Stock-comp expense forecast for finance and accounting partners.

Forecast stock-based compensation expense by reporting period from a population of awards, grant-date fair values, vesting terms, and forfeiture / probability assumptions. Walk by-period recognition, by-award-type and by-grant-year totals, and remaining unrecognized expense. Memo for the conversation between TR, finance, and accounting.

Deterministic engine. No AI in the calculation path. Client-side only. Planning forecast, not GAAP-final. Modification accounting, true-up cycles, and market-condition valuation are not modeled. Accounting policy and external auditor review control the final number.

Client-side only · no uploadDeterministic engine · no AI in calcPlanning forecastNot GAAP-final · accounting policy controls

Showing the sample award population. Edit any field to start working with your own data, or clear to a blank slate.

How to use this in a stock-comp forecast cycle

Step 1
Pull award population
Export awards outstanding with grant-date fair value from your stock administration platform. Add any vesting-term or service-period overrides where the company's accounting policy differs from the platform default.
Step 2
Set the forecast window
Pick the period start, end, and reporting frequency (quarterly or annual). Set the default forfeiture rate per the company's true-up policy.
Step 3
Read the per-period forecast
The bucketizer places straight-line awards proportionally across the period and graded awards via per-tranche accelerated attribution.
Step 4
Walk exceptions
Missing fair value, missing vesting term, missing PSU probability, and inverted service period all surface as flags before the forecast is shared.
Step 5
Hand off
Stock-comp accounting → finance (FY budget) → TR → external auditor for any modification or re-measurement cycle.

What this tool is, and what it isn’t

Planning forecast, not GAAP-final

The engine is directional. Modification accounting (Type I/II/III), forfeiture true-up cycles, performance-condition probability re-measurement, and market-condition Monte Carlo valuation are out of scope. Accounting policy and external auditor review control the final number.

Recognition shortcut

Straight-line attributes uniformly across the service period. Graded vesting uses accelerated attribution per tranche. The company's accounting policy may use a different attribution method; the forecast is calibrated for planning, not closing.

Editable assumptions

Forfeiture rate, PSU probability cap, service-period overrides, vesting pattern. Confirm against the company's accounting policy before relying on the output.

Client-side only

Inputs stay in this browser tab and are gone the moment you close it. Nothing is uploaded.

Awards

Manual entry or paste/upload an awards-outstanding worksheet.

Where to find thisAward ID, Award Type, Grant Date, Shares, Grant-Date Fair Value, Vesting Term Years, Vesting Pattern: stock administration platform export. Forfeiture Rate, Performance Probability, Service Start/End: company stock-comp accounting policy / valuation report. Required column on import: Grant Date Fair Value.

Or paste CSV inline

Award ID	Type	Grant date	Shares	FV/share	Term yrs	Pattern	Forfeit	PSU prob

Forecast settings

Period startPeriod endReporting frequencyDefault forfeiture rate (decimal)Performance probability cap

Headline forecast

Awards in scope

Total expected

$11,112,625

Recognized in window

$3,119,527

Remaining

$372,070

Rows with exceptions

Periods

Forfeiture (default)

5.0%

PSU cap

2.00

Forecast by period

Period	Range	Total expense	RSU	PSU	ISO	NSO	SAR	RSA	OTHER
2026 Q1	2026-01-01 → 2026-03-31	$719,047	$627,952	$76,149	$14,945	—	—	—	—
2026 Q2	2026-04-01 → 2026-06-30	$475,037	$430,560	$44,477	—	—	—	—	—
2026 Q3	2026-07-01 → 2026-09-30	$480,257	$435,292	$44,965	—	—	—	—	—
2026 Q4	2026-10-01 → 2026-12-31	$480,257	$435,292	$44,965	—	—	—	—	—
2027 Q1	2027-01-01 → 2027-03-31	$340,101	$316,840	$23,261	—	—	—	—	—
2027 Q2	2027-04-01 → 2027-06-30	$206,761	$205,152	$1,609	—	—	—	—	—
2027 Q3	2027-07-01 → 2027-09-30	$209,033	$207,407	$1,627	—	—	—	—	—
2027 Q4	2027-10-01 → 2027-12-31	$209,033	$207,407	$1,627	—	—	—	—	—

By award type / by grant year

By award type (total expected)

RSU	$9,143,750
PSU	$1,493,875
ISO	$475,000

By grant year (total expected)

2022	$475,000
2023	$1,662,500
2024	$4,643,125
2025	$4,332,000

Exceptions

Missing fair value

PSU missing probability

Accounting memo

Plain markdown. Not a GAAP-final estimate; the external auditor controls the final number.

# ASC 718 expense forecast — planning memo

Educational forecast. Not a GAAP-final accounting estimate. Real ASC 718 expense involves modification accounting, true-up cycles, performance-condition probability changes, market-condition Monte Carlo valuations, and the company's accounting policy. Bring this memo to TR, finance, and accounting; the external auditor controls the final number.

## 1. Inputs and assumptions
- Forecast window: 2026-01-01 to 2027-12-31.
- Reporting frequency: Quarterly.
- Default forfeiture rate: 5.00% (per-award override honored).
- PSU probability cap: 2.00 (caps the user-supplied probability factor).
- Recognition: straight-line awards amortize uniformly across service period; graded awards use accelerated attribution per tranche (front-loaded vs straight-line).

## 2. Totals
- Awards in scope: 7
- Total expected expense (net of forfeitures): $11,112,625
- Expense recognized inside the forecast window: $3,119,527
- Remaining unrecognized after window end: $372,070

## 3. Forecast by period
- **2026 Q1** (2026-01-01 to 2026-03-31): $719,047
- **2026 Q2** (2026-04-01 to 2026-06-30): $475,037
- **2026 Q3** (2026-07-01 to 2026-09-30): $480,257
- **2026 Q4** (2026-10-01 to 2026-12-31): $480,257
- **2027 Q1** (2027-01-01 to 2027-03-31): $340,101
- **2027 Q2** (2027-04-01 to 2027-06-30): $206,761
- **2027 Q3** (2027-07-01 to 2027-09-30): $209,033
- **2027 Q4** (2027-10-01 to 2027-12-31): $209,033

## 4. Total expected expense by award type
- RSU: $9,143,750
- PSU: $1,493,875
- ISO: $475,000

## 5. Total expected expense by grant year
- 2022: $475,000
- 2023: $1,662,500
- 2024: $4,643,125
- 2025: $4,332,000

## 6. Exceptions
- Missing fair value: 1
- PSU missing probability: 1

## 7. Recommended next steps
1. **Stock comp accounting.** Reconcile the per-period numbers against the company's accounting policy (true-up vs estimate of forfeiture, attribution method, performance-condition probability re-measurement schedule).
2. **Finance.** Plug the forecast into the FY budget and the dilution / share-pool model.
3. **TR.** Reconcile any new grant or modification cycles between this run and the most recent expense schedule from the stock administration platform.
4. **External auditor review.** The numbers above are directional. Modification accounting (Type I/II/III), market-condition Monte Carlo valuation, and any non-trivial performance-condition probability change is out of scope for this planning forecast.

## 8. Per-award expected expense (top 20)
- **G-2023-001** (RSU, Graded, 4-year 25/25/25/25) — 50,000 shares × FV $35 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $1,662,500; in window $134,269; remaining $0
- **G-2024-001** (RSU, Graded, 4-year 25/25/25/25) — 75,000 shares × FV $45 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $3,206,250; in window $750,916; remaining $25,220
- **G-2025-001** (RSU, Graded, 4-year 25/25/25/25) — 90,000 shares × FV $50 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $4,275,000; in window $1,980,715; remaining $346,036
- **G-2024-PSU** (PSU, Graded, 3-year 33/33/34) — 25,000 shares × FV $55 × prob 1.10 × (1 − 0.05) = $1,436,875; in window $212,832; remaining $0
- **G-2022-ISO** (ISO, Straight-line) — 20,000 shares × FV $25 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $475,000; in window $14,945; remaining $0
- **G-X1** (RSU, Straight-line) — 1,000 shares × FV $0 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $0; in window $0; remaining $0
- **G-X2** (PSU, Graded, 3-year 33/33/34) — 1,000 shares × FV $60 × prob 1.00 × (1 − 0.05) = $57,000; in window $25,848; remaining $813

## Disclaimer
This is a planning forecast, not the company's audited ASC 718 stock-comp expense. Modification accounting, forfeiture true-up cycles, performance-condition probability changes, and market-condition valuation are not modeled. Accounting policy and external auditor review control the final number.

Educational planning forecast. Not a GAAP-final stock-comp expense estimate. Modification accounting, forfeiture true-up, performance- condition probability re-measurement, and market-condition Monte Carlo valuation are not modeled. Accounting policy and external auditor review control the final number.